CFM Survey

Promoting and Taxing Investment in the UK Budget

The October 2024 CfM survey asked the members of its panel for their opinion on the policies expected in the upcoming UK Autumn Budget on October 30th. The members were asked about changes the UK’s fiscal rules that would allow debt to increase for the purpose of greater public investment. The panel was also asked whether increasing capital gains taxes is an effective way to raise revenues over the upcoming decade. Most panellists support changing fiscal rules to allow for increased public investment. The panel is ambivalent whether increasing capital gains taxes is an effective way to raise revenues with most being uncertain, some clearly disagreeing, some agreeing but with substantial caveats.

A National Wealth Fund for the UK

The September 2024 CfM survey investigated proposals to found a National Wealth Fund (NWF) in the UK. The panellists were asked whether they think that the NWF would be effective in increasing UK’s investment and economic growth. The panel was also asked whether they are concerned about the affordability of the NWF, given the current high levels of government debt. The results showed that most of the panellists were not confident in the NWF’s ability to boost growth. The panel was roughly equally split between those supporting and opposing the creation of a NWF, . However, even supporters of the NWF expressed low confidence in its impact and expressed many caveats. On the financing of the NWF, the panel expressed little concerns about the affordability of the NWF.

From Peace to Preparedness: Analysing Europe's Expanding Defense Expenditures

The July 2024 CfM survey asked the members of its UK panel to outline the three most important economic policy challenges facing the incoming UK government. Generative AI was used to summarise and analyse their responses. Almost every panellist cites the UK’s poor economic growth, productivity and infrastructure as the most important challenge facing the incoming government. The poor state of public services; Brexit, immigration and trade-related issues; fiscal policy and public finances; and housing reform also mentioned as key challenges.

From Manifestos to Mandates: The UK Election in Focus

The June 2024 CfM survey asked the members of its UK panel to outline the three most important economic policy challenges facing the incoming UK government. Generative AI was used to summarise and analyse their responses. Almost every panellist cites the UK’s poor economic growth, productivity and infrastructure as the most important challenge facing the incoming government. The poor state of public services; Brexit, immigration and trade-related issues; fiscal policy and public finances; and housing reform also mentioned as key challenges.

From pledge to practice: Assessing the UK's net zero commitments

The May 2024 CfM survey asked the members of its UK panel to assess the impact of measures taken by the UK to meet its net zero commitment on its long-term economic growth. The panel was also asked to choose the most effective policy to reduce CO2 emissions in the UK. Most panellists believe that green policies have not had any impact on the UK’s long-term growth prospects. The majority of the panel advocate a carbon tax as the most effective way to curb CO2 emissions in the UK.

Evaluating the spring budget and the UK's fiscal rules

The March 2024 CfM survey asked the members of its UK panel to assess whether the newly announced cut in national insurance contributions would substantially stimulate GDP within a year. The panel was also asked to predict if the next UK government would have to raise taxes to make public debt sustainable. The survey concluded by asking the panel to assess the effectiveness of the UK’s fiscal rules in limiting the accumulation of public debt, relative to a no-rules scenario. Most panellists believe the national insurance contribution cut will not stimulate the UK economy and the subsequent government would need to raise taxes to ensure the sustainability of public debt. The majority of the panel believes the current fiscal rules are either ineffective or counterproductive in limiting public debt build-up, with a small fraction suggesting the rules are somewhat effective in their task.

Building Back Better? Assessing the impact of NextGenerationEU

The February 2024 CfM survey asked the members of its EU panel to assess the short-term impact of NextGenerationEU on recipient EU member states. The panel was also asked to forecast the programme’s effects on the growth prospects of recipient countries over the upcoming decade. Most panelists think the programme has supported the post-pandemic recovery of member states, but only to a limited extent. The majority of the panel believes that the programme will have a similar small, yet positive impact on long-term growth in recipient countries over the upcoming decade.

Unravelling the Chaos: Evaluating the UK Tax Regime

The September 2023 CfM survey asked the members of its UK panel to assess the effect of tax reform on the UK’s growth over a 5-year horizon. The panel was also asked to identify which tax was in the greatest need for reform. Most panellists think tax reform will positively impact growth in the UK in the near future, with only a small fraction believing that it is unlikely to affect growth significantly. Almost all of the panel believes that all taxes are in dire need of reform, with some panel members highlighting the need to reform personal income taxes in particular.